Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:19:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

47 0x475a…ca2d other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$92 (+60%) realized +$117 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +307% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +269% what you keep after slip

Net edge+269%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$52per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+268.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+307.4%	+268.6%	100%	100%	+268.6%
≤30d	1	+307.4%	+268.6%	100%	100%	+268.6%
≤90d	1	+307.4%	+268.6%	100%	100%	+268.6%
all	1	+307.4%	+268.6%	100%	100%	+268.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+268.6%	100%	+268.6%
10%	+233.3%	100%	+233.3%
15%	+201.1%	100%	+201.1%
20%	+171.6%	100%	+171.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +307% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +307% · $-wt +307% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$96 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$95

Realized+$117

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage3d

Avg bet$52

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	8¢	6¢	$90	$66	−$24 (-27%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	No	19¢	18¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 20	$31	+$96	+307%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	19¢	$31	1h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu	BUY No	8¢	$92	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	24¢	$31	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.73 · official $94.73 (match) · 4 history records