Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4757…9627 crypto 39 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (206 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day206.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (206 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -6.0% -14.9% 38% 26% -12.1%
≤30d 39 -6.0% -14.9% 38% 26% -12.1%
≤90d 39 -6.0% -14.9% 38% 26% -12.1%
all 39 -6.0% -14.9% 38% 26% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover206.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 26% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 18% -20.5%
15% -30.5% 13% -28.2%
20% -37.3% 10% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day206.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$13 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $45 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$17 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $38 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $84 −$40 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $84 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $71 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$22 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $72 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$9 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $82 +$27 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $71 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $56 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$13 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $40 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$18 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $27 +$27 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$21 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $33 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$5 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$18 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records