Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:41:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
47 0x4756…d77a sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+9%) realized +$55 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate67%39W / 19L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$50
other 28% +$103
world 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +8.1% -2.2% 67% 40% -2.2%
≤30d 58 +8.1% -2.2% 67% 40% -2.2%
≤90d 58 +8.1% -2.2% 67% 40% -2.2%
all 58 +8.1% -2.2% 67% 40% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 40% -2.2%
10% -11.6% 24% -11.6%
15% -20.1% 19% -20.1%
20% -27.9% 16% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses39 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)58 / 65
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Under 26¢ 44¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+71%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? No 60¢ 91¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? No 77¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Under 27¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $10 +$19 +188%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$21 +206%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +27%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$61 +596%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +124%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$30 +290%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 27¢ $10 58m
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY No 77¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 7¢ $10 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $10 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 52¢ $10 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 40¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 34¢ $10 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 1h
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY No 84¢ $10 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY No 68¢ $10 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $10 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 26¢ $10 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 28¢ $10 5h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $10 6h
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY No 30¢ $10 9h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 88¢ $10 9h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 96¢ $10 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? BUY No 90¢ $10 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY No 97¢ $10 27h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 13¢ $10 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.99 · official $76.91 (match) · 123 history records