Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4755…c9eb
crypto · 962 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$305 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$305 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses500 / 462
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)962 / 962
History coverage89d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 0 History 962 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$8
14 days−$2
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 29? Up 68¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on May 29? Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 20? Yes 89¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 4? Down 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on May 20? No 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$5 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$3 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% −$229
other 6% −$38
weather 4% −$31
tech 4% −$9
finance 2% +$2
sports 2% +$3
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -8.4% -17.1% 55% 44% -6.2%
≤30d 656 -10.7% -19.2% 53% 42% -16.7%
≤90d 962 -11.8% -20.2% 52% 43% -17.5%
all 962 -11.8% -20.2% 52% 43% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 43% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 32% -25.4%
15% -34.8% 22% -32.6%
20% -41.2% 17% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records