Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
47 0x4754…add3 sports 7 markets active 5d ago coverage 239d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$510 (+48%) realized +$510 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$525
crypto 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 7 -35.6% -41.8% 29% 29% +34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 29% +34.1%
10% -47.3% 29% +21.3%
15% -52.4% 29% +9.6%
20% -57.1% 14% -1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +48% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$532 vs −$111 · ×4.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$510
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage239d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 09 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 09 $11 −$11 -99%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Blues Oct 16 $500 +$1,062 +212%
Flames vs. Utah Oct 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 2¢ $1 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 98d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 50¢ $36 100d
Blackhawks vs. Blues BUY Blackhawks 32¢ $500 243d
Flames vs. Utah BUY Flames 33¢ $500 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records