Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
47 0x4753…41ad other 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$927 (+10%) realized +$936 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%42W / 41L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$1,085now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$312
7 days+$1,045
14 days+$1,045
30 days+$1,027
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$884
sports 13% −$25
politics 0% −$7
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +27.6% +15.5% 85% 81% +6.5%
≤30d 28 +21.8% +10.2% 79% 75% +6.1%
≤90d 83 +13.9% +3.0% 51% 47% +0.0%
all 83 +13.9% +3.0% 51% 47% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 47% +0.0%
10% -6.8% 42% -9.6%
15% -15.8% 29% -18.3%
20% -24.1% 20% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$46 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1,085
Realized+$936
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses42 / 41
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage52d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ assists No 79¢ 78¢ $836 $830 −$6 (-1%)
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals No 51¢ 49¢ $144 $139 −$6 (-4%)
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists No 72¢ 74¢ $114 $117 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 26 $353 +$70 +20%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 26 $422 +$78 +18%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $436 +$164 +38%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 25 $155 +$45 +29%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 25 $417 +$81 +19%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 25 $365 +$135 +37%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 24 $301 −$301 -100%
Tajon Buchanan: 1+ shots Jun 24 $37 +$84 +228%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 24 $37 +$13 +34%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $552 +$321 +58%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $235 +$136 +58%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 +$1 +15%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $265 −$4 -2%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $153 +$176 +115%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $121 +$6 +5%
Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goals Jun 23 $168 +$71 +42%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 23 $127 +$41 +33%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Jun 23 $87 +$34 +40%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $206 −$204 -99%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $315 −$315 -100%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 23 $147 +$53 +36%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 22 $387 +$113 +29%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $252 +$83 +33%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $199 +$61 +31%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists Jun 21 $78 +$19 +24%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $107 +$83 +77%
Will Santos FC vs. EC Vitória end in a draw? May 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $19 −$2 -9%
Will Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw? May 27 $21 −$9 -44%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. CA Barracas Central: O/U 3.5 May 27 $24 −$16 -66%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Santos FC vs. CD Cuenca end in a draw? May 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5 May 26 $20 −$19 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $23 −$22 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro end in a draw? May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $70 +$48 +68%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $9 −$9 -97%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Club Olimpia win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $53 +$32 +59%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $43 +$47 +109%
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw? May 20 $35 +$86 +246%
Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5 May 20 $22 +$13 +57%
Will Universidad Central de Venezuela FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $40 +$70 +174%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $29 −$25 -86%
Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5 May 17 $28 −$28 -97%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $16 −$16 -97%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 3.5 May 16 $77 +$23 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $46 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 78¢ $390 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $336 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $8 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $5 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $8 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $7 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $8 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $20 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY No 80¢ $4 2h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists BUY No 72¢ $50 3h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists BUY No 72¢ $64 3h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $136 6h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $9 15h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY No 83¢ $353 42h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 84¢ $422 42h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $7 47h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $274 47h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $92 47h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $62 47h
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $155 2d
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY No 84¢ $236 2d
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY No 83¢ $173 2d
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY No 82¢ $8 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 60¢ $146 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 60¢ $3 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 60¢ $75 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 60¢ $5 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals BUY No 60¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,085.28 · official $1,085.28 (match) · 317 history records