Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:58:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
47 0x4751…c559 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,640 (+60%) realized +$1,640 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$845
7 days+$1,476
14 days+$1,545
30 days+$1,545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$1,499
sports 5% +$32
crypto 4% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -23.9% -31.2% 43% 43% +40.9%
≤30d 23 -0.9% -10.3% 48% 48% +42.8%
≤90d 25 +17.2% +6.0% 52% 52% +44.4%
all 25 +17.2% +6.0% 52% 52% +44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 52% +44.4%
10% -4.1% 52% +30.6%
15% -13.4% 52% +18.0%
20% -21.9% 44% +6.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$22 · ×6.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.06 per $1 lost it wins $7.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,640
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage48d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$142 +139%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $505 +$252 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $508 +$602 +118%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $506 +$300 +59%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $253 +$138 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$137 +67%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$59 +383%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $5 +$4 +86%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $15 +$56 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $244 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $103 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $757 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,110 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $508 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $806 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 32¢ $51 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 3d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $390 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $253 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $51 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $74 9d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $15 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $20 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $10 9d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 9d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians BUY Punjab Kings 55¢ $10 42d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians SELL Royal Challengers Bangalore 100¢ $9 45d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 53¢ $5 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 49 history records