Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
47 0x474c…6625 sports 15 markets active 12h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$562 (+24%) realized +$562 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$48
other 16% +$47
crypto 10% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +11.6% +1.0% 53% 53% +0.4%
≤30d 15 +11.6% +1.0% 53% 53% +0.4%
≤90d 15 +11.6% +1.0% 53% 53% +0.4%
all 15 +11.6% +1.0% 53% 53% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 53% +0.4%
10% -8.7% 53% -9.2%
15% -17.5% 53% -17.9%
20% -25.6% 53% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$151 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$562
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage4d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $230 +$148 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $199 −$196 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $100 +$99 +98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $197 −$194 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $77 +$69 +90%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $46 +$31 +68%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $105 +$174 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $177 +$228 +128%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $142 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $150 +$170 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $203 −$200 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $132 −$29 -22%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $262 +$384 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 83¢ $196 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $182 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $230 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $199 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 78¢ $120 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 56¢ $79 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 33¢ $100 36h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $197 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $101 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 91¢ $146 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $77 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $77 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $46 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 34¢ $204 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $279 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $105 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 91¢ $405 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $177 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 44¢ $122 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 90¢ $219 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 58¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 35¢ $150 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $203 4d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 44¢ $29 4d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 70¢ $385 4d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $102 4d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 95¢ $646 4d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 38¢ $262 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records