Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
47 0x474b…249b other 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,753 (-1%) realized −$1,753 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate20%33W / 128L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$895per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$11
14 days−$19
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$430
politics 36% −$60
sports 11% −$1,375
economics 3% −$1
world 2% +$92
crypto 1% +$3
culture 1% −$2
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 36 +0.1% -9.4% 11% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 110 -11.8% -20.2% 5% 2% -11.2%
all 161 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 12% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 12% -10.6%
10% -18.5% 11% -19.2%
15% -26.3% 10% -27.0%
20% -33.6% 8% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,199) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$19 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized−$1,753
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses33 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage157d
Avg bet$895
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $278 $278 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 15 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $882 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $2,752 −$4 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,663 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,700 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,485 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,814 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,911 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $48 +$65 +134%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,806 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $170 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $561 +$3 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $249 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $422 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $319 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,233 −$3 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $412 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $543 −$1 -0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 22 $79 +$58 +73%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $686 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 20 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,843 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $949 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $888 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $2,574 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $3,251 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $3,282 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $2,264 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $693 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $694 2h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $567 2h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $568 5h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $549 5h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $550 8h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $551 41h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $552 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $278 2d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $978 2d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $979 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $962 5d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $964 5d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $600 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $601 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $713 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $714 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $923 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $925 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $711 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $711 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $614 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $615 7d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $809 8d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $810 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $908 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $910 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $809 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $810 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $788 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.05 · official $278.05 (match) · 528 history records