Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4749…9bac
other · 9 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$3 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage12d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit22%
Chart Positions 0 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $3 +$4 +125%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 76% $0
sports 24% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 45m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 25h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $7 5d
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 5d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -23.6% -30.9% 33% 33% +5.5%
≤30d 9 -23.6% -30.9% 33% 33% +5.5%
≤90d 9 -23.6% -30.9% 33% 33% +5.5%
all 9 -23.6% -30.9% 33% 33% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 33% +5.5%
10% -37.5% 33% -4.6%
15% -43.6% 33% -13.8%
20% -49.1% 33% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records