Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4748…0bd8
crypto · 25 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$41 +28%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$42 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$31
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
Avg bet$6
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 3 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$6 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$16 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$16 +111%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $10 +$9 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% +$8
crypto 40% +$16
sports 17% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% +26.3%
≤30d 22 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% +26.3%
≤90d 22 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% +26.3%
all 22 +18.6% +7.3% 50% 50% +26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.3% 50% +26.3%
10% ← realistic here -2.9% 50% +14.2%
15% -12.3% 50% +3.1%
20% -20.9% 41% -7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.85 · official $30.85 (match) · 47 history records