Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
47 0x4748…9666 sports 789 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,763 (-1%) realized −$1,759 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%338W / 450L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$2,056est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,753
7 days+$1,879
14 days+$3,505
30 days+$5,642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$1,444
other 14% −$1,021
crypto 0% −$497
world 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +5.9% -4.2% 47% 47% +0.2%
≤30d 220 +3.0% -6.8% 44% 44% -3.9%
≤90d 663 -7.3% -16.1% 42% 41% -11.3%
all 788 -4.6% -13.7% 43% 42% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 42% -10.9%
10% -21.9% 42% -19.4%
15% -29.5% 40% -27.2%
20% -36.4% 37% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$180 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$1,759
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses338 / 450
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$2,056
Open positions1
Markets (closed)788 / 789
History coverage107d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 788 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Maanshan: Alberto Lim vs Joshua Charlton Joshua Charlton 48¢ 44¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 175 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals Jun 18 $460 −$460 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $501 +$550 +110%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $973 −$952 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,005 −$993 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $369 +$249 +67%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $506 +$356 +70%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $405 −$400 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $560 +$362 +65%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $569 −$556 -98%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $416 −$408 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $199 +$218 +109%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $302 −$298 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $132 −$130 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $199 +$234 +117%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $124 −$122 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $200 +$124 +62%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $177 −$174 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $249 +$627 +252%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $200 +$502 +250%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $619 −$610 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $497 +$427 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $253 +$153 +61%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $460 +$1,091 +237%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $505 −$497 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $294 −$290 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,060 +$1,748 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $390 −$384 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $200 −$196 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $99 +$91 +91%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $59 −$58 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $465 +$93 +20%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $300 +$164 +55%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $207 −$205 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $304 +$204 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $326 +$515 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,080 +$359 +33%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $358 +$1,161 +324%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $396 −$395 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $511 +$1,341 +262%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $508 +$556 +109%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $364 +$182 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $111 +$38 +34%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $453 +$378 +84%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $356 +$94 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Maanshan: Alberto Lim vs Joshua Charlton BUY Joshua Charlton 48¢ $51 2m
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 100¢ $1,052 55m
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 47¢ $501 1h
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $460 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 10h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $968 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,005 11h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $1,013 12h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 42¢ $102 14h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 59¢ $369 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $506 26h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $405 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $922 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 58¢ $3 30h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 60¢ $557 30h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 34h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $55 34h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $511 34h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 32¢ $197 35h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 32¢ $219 35h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic SELL Hamad Medjedovic 100¢ $417 35h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 47¢ $199 37h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 47¢ $203 37h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 20¢ $102 37h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 63¢ $302 38h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 56¢ $132 39h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 45¢ $199 40h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 49¢ $2 41h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 49¢ $122 41h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $200 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.35 · official $47.92 · 1739 history records