Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4746…ee0d world 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%34W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$5
other 24% −$1
politics 19% −$2
sports 6% −$2
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.1% -12.3% 29% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 31 -1.0% -10.5% 42% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 68 -3.6% -12.7% 32% 0% -9.8%
all 94 -5.1% -14.1% 36% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -22.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses34 / 60
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage457d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $29 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $27 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $35 −$2 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $31 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $74 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $61 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $34 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $49 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $88 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $66 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $34 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $30 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $32 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $99 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $16 $0 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $36 −$3 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $67 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $12 $0 -3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $102 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $63 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $65 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $19 −$2 -8%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $30 24m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $30 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $3 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $27 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $4 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $23 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $7 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $20 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $20 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $9 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $9 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $18 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $29 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $14 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.15 · official $0.00 · 336 history records