Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:17:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4743…5b1a world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$13
other 27% +$1
politics 15% −$2
sports 13% −$8
tech 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 26 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 4% -8.9%
≤90d 70 -0.9% -10.3% 40% 1% -9.5%
all 88 -0.7% -10.2% 36% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 56
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage332d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $328 +$4 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $188 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 19 $139 +$6 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $340 +$12 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $186 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $350 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $166 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $141 −$2 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $141 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $151 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $148 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $176 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $319 −$2 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $147 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $128 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $135 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $339 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $156 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $118 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $141 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $11 −$2 -18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $143 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $27 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $7 +$1 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $41 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $260 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $129 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $141 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $142 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 -5%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 02 $225 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $315 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $660 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $256 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $150 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $141 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $333 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $297 −$8 -3%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $151 +$2 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $261 −$2 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $133 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $130 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $38 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $63 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $166 4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $166 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $188 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $188 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $71 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $69 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $186 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $186 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $187 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $185 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $168 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $166 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $166 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $166 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $136 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $125 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $34 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $106 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $141 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $141 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $77 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $64 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $58 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $86 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $25 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.46 · official $100.62 (match) · 404 history records