Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4741…8658 world 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate29%28W / 68L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$6
other 23% $0
politics 23% −$1
sports 12% −$2
economics 4% +$2
culture 3% +$1
crypto 1% +$7
finance 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.7% -10.2% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 30 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 81 -0.5% -10.0% 28% 4% -9.6%
all 96 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses28 / 68
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage352d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -8%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $46 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $58 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $180 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -61%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $45 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $49 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $23 +$3 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $41 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $152 −$6 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $48 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $2 $0 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $127 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $52 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $52 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $48 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $11 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $146 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $102 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $140 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $2 $0 +11%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $50 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $133 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $46 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $47 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $11 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $22 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $13 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $45 25h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $1 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $13 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $38 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $50 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $29 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $21 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $50 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $49 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 381 history records