Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4740…fa66 sports 626 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,614 (-4%) realized −$1,724 · open +$110
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%249W / 370L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$215est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$744now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,573
7 days−$1,047
14 days−$619
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$265
crypto 13% −$1,342
other 8% +$171
finance 0% −$1
world 0% −$30
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -26.9% -33.9% 21% 21% -48.6%
≤30d 86 -1.4% -10.8% 29% 29% -12.9%
≤90d 429 -52.5% -57.0% 16% 16% -59.6%
all 619 -1.8% -11.2% 40% 38% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 38% -13.6%
10% -19.7% 35% -21.8%
15% -27.5% 31% -29.4%
20% -34.6% 29% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$52 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$744
Realized−$1,724
Unrealized+$110
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses249 / 370
Est. fees paid−$215
Open positions7
Markets (closed)619 / 626
History coverage528d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $338 $273 −$65 (-19%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 72¢ $56 $145 +$89 (+158%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 39¢ 82¢ $39 $82 +$44 (+112%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 19¢ 56¢ $22 $64 +$42 (+191%)
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Japan 8¢ 26¢ $15 $48 +$33 (+219%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $13 $26 +$13 (+100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 29¢ 10¢ $70 $25 −$45 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$31 +61%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $35 −$34 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Iceland? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Azerbaijan (-2.5) Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Hungary (-2.5) Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 20 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Hungary leading at halftime? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $79 −$79 -100%
Thailand leading at halftime? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Azerbaijan leading at halftime? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Hong Kong SAR (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-5.5) Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $3 38m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 40m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 14¢ $21 41m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 49¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 34¢ $35 3h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 19¢ $19 9h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $40 9h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 8¢ $16 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $57 9h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 22¢ $20 10h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 22¢ $2 10h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 21¢ $21 10h
Spread: Netherlands (-5.5) BUY Netherlands 13¢ $26 10h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $24 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $20 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $38 12h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $743.82 · official $567.88 · 2518 history records