Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:14:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x473f…06db other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,098 (-9%) realized −$1,073 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%27W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1,759now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days−$101
14 days−$66
30 days−$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$785
tech 37% −$327
culture 7% +$78
world 6% +$131
economics 6% −$57
sports 3% −$340
finance 2% +$16
politics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.6% -20.9% 62% 62% -12.8%
≤30d 22 -23.8% -31.1% 59% 45% -17.0%
≤90d 27 -20.5% -28.0% 63% 44% -13.7%
all 43 -23.7% -31.0% 63% 37% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 37% -20.6%
10% -37.6% 21% -28.2%
15% -43.6% 12% -35.1%
20% -49.1% 5% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$171 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$1,759
Realized−$1,073
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses27 / 16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)43 / 49
History coverage225d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $786 $893 +$107 (+14%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $548 $616 +$68 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $150 $109 −$41 (-27%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $86 −$64 (-43%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 51¢ 56¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 29¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $281 +$62 +22%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $298 −$298 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $259 +$39 +15%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $152 +$89 +59%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $851 +$97 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $444 +$407 +92%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $275 +$31 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $270 +$96 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $239 +$72 +30%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$29 +47%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $310 −$310 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 30 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? May 29 $181 +$15 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 29 $543 +$43 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 29 $322 +$8 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 29 $241 +$83 +34%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 07 $161 +$43 +27%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 07 $250 +$13 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 07 $250 +$79 +32%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 07 $462 +$36 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Mar 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Mar 11 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 07 $217 +$46 +21%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Mar 07 $243 +$30 +12%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 07 $120 +$7 +6%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Mar 07 $589 −$589 -100%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 26 $845 +$78 +9%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 28 $200 −$200 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 19 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Dec 12 $243 +$18 +8%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 03 $200 +$30 +15%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 03 $200 +$10 +5%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Alexander Zverev vs Felix Aug Nov 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 23 $100 +$9 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $103 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $298 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $128 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $131 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $258 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $281 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $240 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $851 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $228 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $341 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $69 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $275 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $239 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $66 10d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $23 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $155 12d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 12d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $155 12d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $553 29d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $566 29d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 11¢ $310 29d
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $181 81d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $543 81d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 74¢ $241 81d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $322 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,759.43 · official $1,759.44 (match) · 113 history records