Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:37:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x473f…e25a world 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$1
other 19% $0
politics 16% $0
crypto 9% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 14% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 8 -1.0% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 17 +3.2% -6.6% 29% 6% -9.6%
all 35 +1.9% -7.8% 34% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 6% -9.5%
10% -16.7% 3% -18.1%
15% -24.7% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage382d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $32 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $30 $0 -1%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $29 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $34 −$2 -5%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $31 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $33 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 11 $22 $0 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 10 $2 $0 -22%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will María Galindo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 1m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 12h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $30 16h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $29 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $30 37h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $29 41h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 53¢ $3 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 54¢ $5 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $30 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $31 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $28 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $3 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $30 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $31 32d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 32d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 32d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 32d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 32d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 32d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 34d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 34d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 34d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $31 34d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $30 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records