Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:24:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x473e…3455 other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$17
politics 25% −$13
crypto 15% −$12
sports 13% −$3
economics 7% −$2
culture 6% −$7
finance 3% −$6
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.3% 4% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 66 -0.8% -10.2% 3% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 115 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 128 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 111
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage99d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 17 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $123 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 16 $303 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $228 −$3 -1%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $45 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $308 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $107 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $63 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $461 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $62 −$1 -2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $306 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $143 $0 -0%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 09 $24 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 07 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $55 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $42 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $56 −$1 -2%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $229 −$1 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Jun 03 $20 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $101 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 02 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $63 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $55 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $55 8h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 8h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 12h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $61 13h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $61 20h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 21h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 26h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 26h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $52 31h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 89¢ $41 32h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $43 39h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $44 39h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $45 46h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 47h
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $24 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $24 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $45 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $39 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $15 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 3d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.99 · official $48.99 (match) · 506 history records