Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4738…35ce
sports · 114 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$59 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$42 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$117
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses60 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)106 / 114
History coverage233d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 8 History 106 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 96¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+55%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ 71¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 44¢ 32¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-27%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 121.5 Under 58¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Cavaliers 66¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5 Over 57¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5 Over 67¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Over 50¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5 Under 56¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Watford FC win on 2025-11-25? Yes 52¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Thunder 52¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Pistons 59¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-25? Yes 50¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Nuggets Nuggets 76¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5 Under 55¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 240.5 Under 47¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Wizards Hawks 82¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 26 $16 +$85 +529%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $9 +$3 +32%
Sharks vs. Avalanche Feb 09 $24 +$1 +4%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Feb 05 $2 +$1 +49%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5 Feb 05 $2 +$1 +70%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Feb 05 $2 +$1 +72%
Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 110.5 Feb 05 $2 +$1 +72%
Rockets vs. Lakers Feb 05 $2 +$2 +75%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Feb 05 $2 +$2 +85%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-29? Dec 25 $44 −$20 -44%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5 Dec 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5 Dec 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 121.5 Dec 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 240.5 Dec 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Nov 29 $3 +$1 +22%
Bucks vs. Knicks Nov 29 $3 +$1 +35%
76ers vs. Nets Nov 29 $3 +$1 +39%
76ers vs. Nets: 1H O/U 117.5 Nov 29 $3 +$2 +72%
76ers vs. Nets: O/U 229.5 Nov 29 $5 +$3 +70%
Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 235.5 Nov 29 $5 +$4 +79%
Bulls vs. Hornets: O/U 248.5 Nov 29 $5 +$5 +96%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5 Nov 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Clippers Nov 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Kings vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5 Nov 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Nov 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 Nov 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) Nov 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 231.5 Nov 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Nov 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Wizards vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5 Nov 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks: O/U 241.5 Nov 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Nov 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers Nov 26 $5 +$2 +49%
Will Watford FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Nov 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Wizards Nov 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Nov 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 233.5 Nov 25 $5 +$5 +100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bucks Nov 25 $5 +$6 +113%
Jazz vs. Warriors: O/U 239.5 Nov 25 $5 +$5 +96%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Nov 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 67% −$11
other 29% −$18
world 2% +$85
culture 1% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 44¢ $10 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 9h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $20 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $10 10h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 10h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 11h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes $10 36h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $20 44h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 45h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa SELL Yes 100¢ $12 89d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 76¢ $9 95d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 97d
Sharks vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 96¢ $24 128d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 170d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 54¢ $2 170d
Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 110.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2 170d
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 170d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 57¢ $2 170d
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 121.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2 170d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) BUY Spurs 58¢ $2 170d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5 BUY Under 59¢ $2 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +25.6% +13.6% 50% 50% +18.9%
≤30d 9 +81.5% +64.2% 56% 56% +80.5%
≤90d 10 +76.5% +59.7% 60% 60% +76.0%
all 106 +1.1% -8.5% 57% 53% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 53% -3.0%
10% -17.3% 47% -12.3%
15% -25.3% 39% -20.8%
20% -32.6% 34% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.86 · official $116.86 (match) · 216 history records