Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4737…93f2 crypto 639 markets active 10h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,851 (-36%) realized −$8,830 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%120W / 613L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day145.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,002
7 days−$2,645
14 days−$10,423
30 days−$8,388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$5,784
other 12% −$1,446
sports 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (145 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 -69.2% -72.2% 6% 6% -69.2%
≤30d 733 -41.5% -47.1% 16% 16% -41.8%
≤90d 733 -41.5% -47.1% 16% 16% -41.8%
all 733 -41.5% -47.1% 16% 16% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.1% 16% -41.8%
10% ← realistic here -52.2% 16% -47.4%
15% -56.8% 16% -52.5%
20% -61.0% 15% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$32 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$8,830
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses120 / 613
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions20
Markets (closed)733 / 639
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day145.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 733 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 13¢ 3¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 422 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Highlanders win? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 9h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 9h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 9h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.23 · official $186.22 (match) · 3500 history records