Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4736…7de6 politics 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 691d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$21
other 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
all 110 -5.2% -14.2% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

691d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)110 / 110
History coverage691d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 110 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $106 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $52 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 15 $52 $0 +1%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 28 $53 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 25 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 07 $53 $0 +0%
Will Brentford finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Feb 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Google forced to sell Chrome? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will LaMelo Ball lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the Eastern Conference? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will James Harden lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Fed emergency rate cut in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump be Speaker by January 1? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Martin Shkreli jail in 2024? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Trudeau out in 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lamar Jackson be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Ravens win the AFC Championship? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Puka Nacua be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will US annual inflation be 2.7% in December? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Dec 20 $0 $0 -5%
Will 'New Blue Sun' win Album of the Year? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will Will Howard win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the AFC North? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
ETHBTC above 0.035 on Nov 30? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Donovan Mitchell lead the NBA in scoring? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 15h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 13d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 25d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 36d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 46d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 47d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $53 64d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $53 65d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 79d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 80d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $53 85d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $53 85d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 90d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 91d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $0 91d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $53 96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $53 96d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $53 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $53 98d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 101d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 101d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 103d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 104d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 106d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 107d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 247 history records