Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:50:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x4735…fb1c weather 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%95W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 40 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 87 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 97 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×5.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×261.94 per $1 lost it wins $261.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses95 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage119d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $117 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 23 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 9? Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 1? Jun 02 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 1? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on May 30? May 31 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on May 29? May 30 $106 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May May 29 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 28? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on May 20? May 20 $110 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 19? May 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 17? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C or higher on May 15? May 16 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on May 13? May 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 12? May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on May 10? May 10 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 9? May 10 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 8? May 09 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 6? May 07 $37 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $117 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $118 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $118 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $117 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $117 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $116 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $117 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $90 8d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $27 9d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $92 9d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $117 9d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $116 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $116 11d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $116 11d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $47 12d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $116 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $116 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $116 14d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $115 16d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $116 17d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or below on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $115 18d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C or below on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $115 18d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $115 19d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $115 20d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $114 20d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $115 21d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $33 21d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $1 21d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $51 21d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $31 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.74 · official $117.74 (match) · 196 history records