Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:28:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4734…0979 other 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,264 (+39%) realized +$2,057 · open +$207
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$111
14 days−$64
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$2,131
politics 21% −$139
economics 9% +$126
world 0% −$4
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -36.9% -42.9% 0% 0% -31.8%
≤30d 8 +2.1% -7.6% 38% 25% -9.3%
≤90d 22 +18.7% +7.4% 50% 45% +44.3%
all 41 -11.5% -20.0% 37% 32% +32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 32% +32.8%
10% -27.6% 22% +20.1%
15% -34.6% 17% +8.5%
20% -41.0% 12% -2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +47% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$17 · ×9.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.2 per $1 lost it wins $5.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$1,205
Realized+$2,057
Unrealized+$207
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Open positions19
Markets (closed)41 / 60
History coverage195d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $441 $597 +$156 (+35%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 22¢ 40¢ $79 $139 +$60 (+76%)
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting? No 88¢ 99¢ $114 $127 +$13 (+12%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 25¢ $22 $87 +$66 (+304%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $34 $44 +$10 (+29%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $13 $32 +$19 (+153%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $28 +$7 (+31%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+11%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the July meeting? No 89¢ 75¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-15%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the July meeting? No 39¢ 62¢ $10 $17 +$6 (+60%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $29 $14 −$14 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+55%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 18 $15 −$12 -81%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $80 −$2 -2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 15 $356 −$97 -27%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the June meeti Jun 11 $52 +$26 +50%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet Jun 11 $283 +$23 +8%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $24 −$2 -8%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 31 $384 −$16 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $51 +$83 +164%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 14 $108 +$42 +39%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $133 +$25 +19%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting? May 04 $154 −$37 -24%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the April meet May 03 $380 +$1,228 +323%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting? Apr 29 $288 +$552 +192%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 09 $12 −$11 -95%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April me Apr 09 $564 −$53 -9%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the May meeting? Apr 07 $33 +$5 +16%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the March me Mar 31 $450 +$48 +11%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting? Mar 26 $7 +$2 +26%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 26 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 26 $15 −$8 -52%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 26 $25 −$4 -14%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? Mar 26 $453 +$240 +53%
Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Feb 14 $17 −$14 -83%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the January Jan 31 $329 +$58 +18%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Bank of Brazil lower the Selic rate after January 2026 meetin Jan 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 28 $24 −$14 -57%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jan 28 $16 +$21 +129%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Jan 28 $18 −$5 -26%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jan 15 $11 $0 -4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 15 $23 −$12 -52%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the February meeting? Jan 01 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Dec 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the December m Dec 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the December Dec 16 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Dec 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the December Dec 10 $27 −$1 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $13 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 BUY Yes 17¢ $35 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 24¢ $82 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 24¢ $10 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 24¢ $98 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $3 3h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $78 27h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary polic SELL No 80¢ $5 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $119 3d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee BUY Yes 70¢ $70 3d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interes BUY No 89¢ $29 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $128 4d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 4d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee BUY Yes 75¢ $40 4d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee BUY Yes 75¢ $0 4d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee BUY Yes 72¢ $62 4d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $3 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $23 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 19¢ $16 7d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $55 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce no change at the June meeti SELL No 85¢ $78 7d
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the June meet SELL No 100¢ $306 7d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 12¢ $22 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $5 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $10 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,204.59 · official $1,204.68 (match) · 466 history records