Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x472f…fc97 crypto 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
Total PnL −$150 (-14%) realized −$197 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%123W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$204
world 11% +$16
other 7% +$1
politics 2% −$1
sports 2% $0
finance 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -26.6% -33.6% 47% 36% -31.4%
≤30d 155 -24.7% -31.8% 50% 38% -23.4%
≤90d 256 -24.7% -31.9% 48% 38% -26.9%
all 256 -24.7% -31.9% 48% 38% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 38% -26.9%
10% -38.4% 28% -33.9%
15% -44.3% 20% -40.3%
20% -49.8% 16% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$197
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses123 / 133
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)256 / 260
History coverage101d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 5m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $6 57m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.19 · official $25.19 (match) · 570 history records