Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x472e…812b crypto 398 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,689 (-14%) realized −$1,689 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%141W / 257L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$87
14 days−$938
30 days−$2,698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$2,098
sports 4% −$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 36% -28.3%
≤30d 341 -38.4% -44.3% 30% 27% -35.2%
≤90d 398 -27.7% -34.6% 35% 32% -28.9%
all 398 -27.7% -34.6% 35% 32% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 32% -28.9%
10% -40.9% 29% -35.7%
15% -46.6% 22% -41.9%
20% -51.8% 17% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,689
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses141 / 257
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)398 / 398
History coverage54d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 398 Trades
no open positions (139 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$17 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$11 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$15 +290%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$13 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$36 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$28 -38%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$15 +59%
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $157 −$53 -34%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 05 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 05 $7 −$7 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $120 −$115 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 05 $8 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 05 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 05 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 05 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3PM ET Jun 05 $25 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $30 −$29 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 04 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 04 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 04 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$56 +873%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $64 −$50 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $45 +$36 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $58 −$56 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 04 $121 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $34 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 04 $145 −$13 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 04 $100 +$54 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 04 $18 +$8 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 04 $37 −$23 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11AM ET Jun 04 $163 −$24 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 04 $47 −$16 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $17 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $37 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $29 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $27 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $19 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $17 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $16 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $42 1h
Spread: Spurs (-25.5) BUY Spurs 9¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1169 history records