Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x472c…bf7c crypto 444 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$34 (-3%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%252W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$7
14 days−$4
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -20.8% -28.4% 53% 48% -8.6%
≤30d 443 -12.8% -21.1% 57% 52% -11.1%
≤90d 444 -12.7% -21.0% 57% 52% -11.1%
all 444 -12.7% -21.0% 57% 52% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 52% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 37% -19.6%
15% -35.5% 23% -27.4%
20% -41.8% 13% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses252 / 192
Open positions0
Markets (closed)444 / 444
History coverage31d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 444 Trades
no open positions (131 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $61 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$28 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$8 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $67 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $61 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $39 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $84 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $62 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $16 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 864 history records