Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
47 0x4728…6426 world 230 markets active 5h ago coverage 630d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 629d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$23,239 (+1%) realized +$56,729 · open −$33,490
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate61%114W / 73L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,246per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$279,543now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 630d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$21,482
economics 25% +$36,561
world 23% −$7,324
other 11% −$1,869
sports 2% −$3,581
culture 1% −$2,840
finance 0% +$4,721
crypto 0% −$402
tech 0% +$785
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +17.2% +6.0% 59% 47% -20.1%
≤30d 38 +18.1% +6.9% 76% 47% -4.6%
≤90d 56 +20.5% +9.0% 82% 45% -2.1%
all 187 +15.0% +4.0% 61% 35% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.0% 35% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -5.9% 22% -15.2%
15% -15.0% 18% -23.4%
20% -23.4% 16% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$3,669) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,286 vs −$1,486 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$279,543
Realized+$56,729
Unrealized−$33,490
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses114 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions43
Markets (closed)187 / 230
History coverage630d ⚠
Avg bet$7,246
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 84¢ $50,000 $84,450 +$34,450 (+69%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $17,355 $18,357 +$1,001 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 81¢ $16,500 $16,298 −$202 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $15,781 $16,046 +$265 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $15,463 $15,820 +$357 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 89¢ 100¢ $14,154 $15,786 +$1,632 (+12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $50,000 $15,550 −$34,450 (-69%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $12,878 $11,287 −$1,591 (-12%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 87¢ 100¢ $8,750 $9,965 +$1,215 (+14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 72¢ 92¢ $7,504 $9,678 +$2,174 (+29%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 77¢ 50¢ $14,391 $9,487 −$4,904 (-34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 100¢ $4,888 $8,883 +$3,995 (+82%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $4,662 $4,777 +$115 (+2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 76¢ 64¢ $5,498 $4,577 −$921 (-17%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $4,283 $4,553 +$270 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 100¢ $724 $4,437 +$3,713 (+513%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $4,043 $4,345 +$302 (+7%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 85¢ $3,586 $3,782 +$196 (+5%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $3,105 $3,264 +$159 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2,953 $2,982 +$28 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $1,644 $2,785 +$1,141 (+69%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 74¢ $2,368 $2,171 −$197 (-8%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 57¢ 26¢ $3,828 $1,779 −$2,050 (-54%)
Discord IPO before 2027? No 36¢ 38¢ $1,605 $1,717 +$112 (+7%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $1,389 $1,487 +$98 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $177 +$39 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $6,650 +$350 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $6,204 +$1,155 +19%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 15 $4,366 +$378 +9%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $4,869 −$4,869 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $7,746 +$2,711 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $6,835 −$613 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2,400 +$2,044 +85%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $6,555 +$1,000 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $1,111 +$1,111 +100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $2,355 +$2,089 +89%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $844 −$112 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $5,473 −$815 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $4,772 −$3,689 -77%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $14,024 −$9,155 -65%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $111 +$445 +400%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $4,615 +$885 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $1,970 +$171 +9%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 04 $2,687 +$247 +9%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,045 +$2,412 +231%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $13,110 +$2,354 +18%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $1,461 −$1,461 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? Jun 01 $277 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,101 +$70 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $5,901 +$611 +10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $187 +$21 +11%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,548 +$239 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,850 +$150 +5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,845 +$155 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $5,309 +$693 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $8,704 +$757 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 29 $958 +$42 +4%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 22 $756 +$372 +49%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 18 $527 −$195 -37%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $4,465 +$1,388 +31%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 18 $5,730 +$1,601 +28%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 18 $7,332 +$4,537 +62%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 24 $933 +$259 +28%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 24 $6,553 +$5,711 +87%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $131 +$4 +3%
Will NewJeans perform again by March 31? Apr 01 $176 +$22 +12%
Will Pure Storage (PSTG) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $280 +$21 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $43,386 +$1,356 +3%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Apr 01 $657 +$36 +5%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Apr 01 $660 +$40 +6%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1,032 +$121 +12%
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 202 Apr 01 $757 +$434 +57%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 01 $1,322 +$17 +1%
Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March Apr 01 $3,442 +$190 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $22 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $56 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,817 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4,097 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4,205 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $161 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $25 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $339 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $166 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $123 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $740 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $240 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $362 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $118 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $18 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $2,612 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $8,300 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $1,514 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $4 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $820 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279,542.69 · official $279,545.13 (match) · 3500 history records