Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:42:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
47 0x4724…a98e other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 50% -10.6%
≤30d 6 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 50% -10.6%
≤90d 6 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 50% -10.6%
all 6 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 50% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 50% -10.6%
10% -21.6% 50% -19.1%
15% -29.1% 33% -27.0%
20% -36.1% 33% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $18 +$6 +34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 +$11 +152%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $18 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 44h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.51 · official $24.51 (match) · 11 history records