Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4722…c720 sports 316 markets active 2d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$784 (-4%) realized −$784 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate87%274W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$392
14 days−$708
30 days−$824
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$828
other 1% +$10
world 0% $0
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -12.3% -20.6% 78% 9% -35.1%
≤30d 316 -5.0% -14.0% 87% 7% -13.8%
≤90d 316 -5.0% -14.0% 87% 7% -13.8%
all 316 -5.0% -14.0% 87% 7% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 7% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 4% -22.0%
15% -29.8% 4% -29.5%
20% -36.7% 3% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$43 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$784
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses274 / 42
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)316 / 316
History coverage18d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 316 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$19 +73%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$18 +90%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$18 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut Jun 12 $52 +$2 +3%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Jun 12 $25 +$1 +3%
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
ITF kiseljak: Ivan Biletic vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 12 $52 +$2 +4%
ITF Decatur: Ana Grubor vs Lea Ma Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Marjorie Souza Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North Americ Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs XI Esport (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Giovana Schincariol Delatorre Barbosa vs Carolina Alves Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Rainbow Six Siege: DarkZero Esports vs Outlast (BO1) - North America L Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
ITF Cuiaba: Catarina Melleiro vs Gabriella Price Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
ITF Decatur: Violeta Martinez vs Malaika Rapolu Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Rebeca Pereira Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
ITF Cuiaba: Julia Konishi Camargo Silva vs Noelia Zeballos Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
ITF Martos: Manel Lazaro Juncadella vs John Echeverria Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
ITF Los Angeles: Tia Messerli vs Monika Ekstrand Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
ITF Decatur: Sophie Llewellyn vs Lea Ma Jun 11 $15 +$1 +4%
ITF Martos: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Mustapha El Natour Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Lucie Havlickova vs Jana Kovackova Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
ITF Martos: Alberto Barroso Campos vs Maxi Carrascosa Diaz Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
ITF Merzig: Eva Bennemann vs Laetitia Sarrazin Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
ITF Nice: Emira Diabate vs Jenny Lim Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Laura Svatikova vs Eva Vedder Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
ITF Guimaraes: Francisca Jorge vs Valentina Losciale Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
ITF Madrid: Sol Ailin Larraya Guidi vs Margaux Maquet Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
ITF Casablanca: Maria Garcia Cid vs Leonie Rabl Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
ITF Monastir: Eva Lopez vs Nikola Daubnerova Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Zeynep Ilker Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Stefan Horia Haita vs Pepijn Bastiaansen Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto SELL Ayumi Miyamoto 98¢ $0 36h
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto SELL Ayumi Miyamoto 98¢ $5 36h
ITF Sapporo: Arina Varaksina vs Ayumi Miyamoto BUY Ayumi Miyamoto 92¢ $5 38h
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu SELL Chenting Zhu 98¢ $5 38h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi BUY Jake Delaney 95¢ $5 38h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi BUY Jake Delaney 94¢ $5 38h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi BUY Jake Delaney 94¢ $5 38h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi BUY Jake Delaney 94¢ $5 38h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi BUY Jake Delaney 94¢ $5 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $10 38h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $20 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $20 38h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 38h
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu BUY Chenting Zhu 97¢ $5 38h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $25 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $20 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $20 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $20 4d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut SELL Los Angeles Thieves 98¢ $27 4d
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North SELL Shopify Rebellion 98¢ $26 4d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Los Angeles Thieves 94¢ $26 4d
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North BUY Shopify Rebellion 95¢ $25 4d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut SELL Los Angeles Thieves 98¢ $26 4d
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Dut BUY Los Angeles Thieves 95¢ $25 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $25 4d
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez BUY Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez 93¢ $1 5d
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez BUY Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez 93¢ $54 5d
Valencia vs. Joventut SELL Valencia 98¢ $54 5d
Valencia vs. Joventut BUY Valencia 94¢ $52 5d
ITF Decatur: Ana Grubor vs Lea Ma SELL Lea Ma 100¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 875 history records