Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:32:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x4722…36bb sports 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,030 (+6%) realized +$1,160 · open −$130
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate65%83W / 45L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2,059now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$53
14 days+$42
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$488
other 27% −$7
crypto 10% +$277
weather 5% −$334
world 2% +$78
politics 2% +$46
tech 2% +$50
finance 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -12.9% -21.2% 63% 63% -10.8%
≤30d 54 -13.1% -21.4% 63% 61% -9.1%
≤90d 115 +3.1% -6.7% 63% 60% -5.0%
all 128 +3.2% -6.6% 65% 61% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 61% -4.7%
10% -15.6% 42% -13.9%
15% -23.7% 32% -22.2%
20% -31.2% 21% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$73 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$2,059
Realized+$1,160
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses83 / 45
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions11
Markets (closed)128 / 139
History coverage103d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $740 $639 −$101 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 56¢ $200 $175 −$25 (-13%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 86¢ 88¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 89¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $192 −$191 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$19 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $118 +$73 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $90 +$28 +31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $70 +$15 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$107 +70%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 +$25 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $201 −$104 -52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$28 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$14 +20%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $101 +$40 +40%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $301 +$44 +14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $100 +$19 +18%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $201 +$22 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $201 +$29 +14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $201 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $303 +$176 +58%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $71 +$78 +109%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $101 +$15 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $101 +$28 +28%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$31 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 09 $77 +$29 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $41 +$46 +114%
Game Handicap: KT (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA (+2.5) Jun 07 $100 +$13 +13%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $50 +$6 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $201 +$22 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $50 +$5 +10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $151 +$22 +15%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $100 +$17 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 75¢ $76 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 7h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $100 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $192 7h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 86¢ $100 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $101 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $40 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $118 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $100 36h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $101 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $90 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $200 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 3d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 82¢ $70 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $71 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $71 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 76¢ $96 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $101 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $301 4d
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $301 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $71 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $70 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,059.23 · official $2,059.23 (match) · 257 history records