Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x471d…8b22 other 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,944 (-10%) realized −$7,920 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%47W / 52L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$667per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$2,317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$300
7 days+$369
14 days−$969
30 days−$969
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$2,998
world 24% −$4,431
other 22% −$1,346
politics 15% +$153
economics 8% −$168
finance 4% +$168
culture 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +34.7% +21.9% 67% 67% +43.3%
≤30d 8 +5.6% -4.5% 75% 50% -13.8%
≤90d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 43% -12.2%
all 99 -11.6% -20.0% 47% 37% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 37% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 28% -27.2%
15% -34.7% 23% -34.3%
20% -41.1% 19% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$937) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$376 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$2,317
Realized−$7,920
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses47 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions17
Markets (closed)99 / 116
History coverage135d
Avg bet$667
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $558 $555 −$3 (-1%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 82¢ 89¢ $333 $360 +$27 (+8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $344 $342 −$2 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $298 $319 +$20 (+7%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $101 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 60¢ $108 $92 −$16 (-15%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 66¢ $99 $88 −$11 (-11%)
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 91¢ $89 $86 −$3 (-3%)
Another Elon baby by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $82 $82 −$0 (-0%)
Will Panama reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 93¢ $76 $75 −$1 (-2%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 61¢ $91 $64 −$26 (-29%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $58 $57 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 74¢ $58 $53 −$5 (-8%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 75¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 70¢ 66¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 70¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $455 +$301 +66%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $158 +$69 +44%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May M Jun 06 $225 +$39 +17%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 06 $1,058 +$27 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 06 $223 +$29 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 06 $2,673 +$201 +8%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $2,250 −$1,634 -73%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $2,772 +$237 +9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 04 $133 +$39 +29%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? May 04 $1,235 +$309 +25%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $68 +$4 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $118 +$63 +54%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Apr 01 $68 −$68 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $2,211 −$1,741 -79%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 01 $6,003 +$340 +6%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Mar 31 $136 −$12 -9%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Mar 31 $457 +$269 +59%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 29 $39 $0 +0%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 24 $472 +$278 +59%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $447 −$447 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo Mar 15 $326 −$237 -73%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Mar 15 $629 −$629 -100%
Will Clavicular be the top ranked Chad by March 31? Mar 14 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 14 $2,043 −$37 -2%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Mar 14 $13 −$3 -27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Mar 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Mar 12 $30 $0 +0%
LoL: FN Esports vs Team Phantasma (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group H Mar 12 $692 −$610 -88%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winner Mar 11 $18 +$10 +57%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs BBL Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 11 $337 −$337 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 1 Winner Mar 11 $581 −$581 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 10 $578 +$262 +45%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $950 +$1,241 +131%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $1,904 −$69 -4%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 10 $1,425 +$1,075 +75%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? Mar 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Mar 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Mar 05 $659 +$361 +55%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Mar 05 $177 +$27 +15%
Will Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential Mar 05 $523 +$63 +12%
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? Mar 05 $968 +$200 +21%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 05 $2,148 +$365 +17%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $2,027 +$619 +30%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 05 $3,995 −$1,970 -49%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Mar 05 $1,668 +$225 +14%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Mar 05 $803 −$47 -6%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 05 $562 −$52 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $347 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $7 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $76 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $89 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $92 8h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $290 8h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 32h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 32h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $41 3d
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $62 3d
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $27 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $27 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 68¢ $41 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $10 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $26 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $32 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $42 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $10 3d
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $59 3d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $9 3d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,316.92 · official $2,318.22 (match) · 1901 history records