Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
47 0x471b…76b8 politics 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
other 20% $0
politics 18% $0
economics 15% +$1
sports 3% $0
finance 2% +$1
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 +3.0% -6.8% 33% 17% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +3.0% -6.8% 33% 17% -9.4%
all 29 +1.1% -8.5% 34% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 3% -9.1%
10% -17.3% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.85 per $1 lost it wins $4.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage320d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $18 $0 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 31 $9 $0 +3%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $58 +$1 +1%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $6 $0 +7%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August? Aug 14 $6 $0 -1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $47 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $45 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $60 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $60 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $29 24h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $17 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $30 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $23 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $61 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 28d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $1 28d
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? BUY No 90¢ $5 261d
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $5 261d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records