Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x471a…0328 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$63,875 (+5%) realized +$63,796 · open +$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate68%85W / 40L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$11,070per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$4,472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$25,362
politics 29% +$37,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.6% -25.4% 69% 23% -5.7%
≤30d 37 -12.4% -20.7% 73% 14% -8.5%
≤90d 125 -7.4% -16.2% 68% 13% -8.8%
all 125 -7.4% -16.2% 68% 13% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 13% -8.8%
10% -24.2% 8% -17.5%
15% ← realistic here -31.6% 5% -25.5%
20% -38.3% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$11,692) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$578 vs −$940 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$4,472
Realized+$63,796
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses85 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage84d
Avg bet$11,070
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $4,393 $4,472 +$79 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $3,729 +$436 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $8,115 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $4,725 +$41 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3,187 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $513 +$612 +119%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $764 +$219 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $6,224 +$387 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5,734 +$122 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,177 +$90 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $230 +$247 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $4,515 +$21 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,186 +$17 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,383 −$338 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,020 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $3,393 +$38 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $7,033 +$25 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5,234 +$40 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $594 −$585 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $7,479 +$21 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $389 +$16 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $7,353 +$291 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2,970 +$30 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1,570 +$37 +2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1,320 +$50 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $359 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $6,884 +$184 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $7,299 −$241 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $991 −$991 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $2,177 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $5,700 −$281 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $201 +$21 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $996 +$891 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $6,709 −$7 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $5,890 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $1,036 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $66 −$44 -67%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $293 −$293 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $202 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $7,872 +$8 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $476 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,959 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $80 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,331 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $66 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $191 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $320 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $17 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $327 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $476 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $123 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $357 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $308 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $481 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $150 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $13 39h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $6 39h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $19 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $51 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $38 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $20 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $11 40h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $184 42h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $7 42h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 47h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $375 47h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $278 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.