Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:43:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4719…8d69 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,364 (-22%) realized −$4,740 · open +$376
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$600per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$4,131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,980
7 days−$4,674
14 days−$4,674
30 days−$4,533
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$4,397
sports 7% +$310
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -38.5% -44.4% 10% 10% -18.4%
≤30d 30 +5.2% -4.8% 40% 33% -16.3%
≤90d 32 +3.9% -6.0% 41% 34% -15.7%
all 32 +3.9% -6.0% 41% 34% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 34% -15.7%
10% -15.0% 34% -23.8%
15% -23.2% 34% -31.1%
20% -30.7% 34% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +43% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$632 vs −$667 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$4,131
Realized−$4,740
Unrealized+$376
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage31d
Avg bet$600
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 52¢ 58¢ $3,756 $4,131 +$376 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,091 −$2,980 -96%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,555 +$7,594 +488%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,094 −$1,057 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $583 −$520 -89%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,025 −$1,985 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,189 −$2,170 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,314 −$2,075 -90%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $292 −$286 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,381 −$1,187 -86%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $44 −$43 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs Atreides (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Jun 07 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $100 −$98 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $22 +$51 +226%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca - Map 4 Winner May 29 $57 +$46 +82%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca - Map 2 Winner May 29 $46 +$70 +154%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Sout May 29 $27 +$2 +9%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial - Map 3 Winner May 29 $313 +$30 +10%
Valorant: Division One vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $36 +$94 +262%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challenge May 28 $12 +$8 +70%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University - Game 4 Winner May 28 $16 +$38 +239%
Valorant: Pigeons vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: May 27 $123 +$99 +80%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 3 Winner May 27 $114 −$114 -100%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 1 Winner May 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $88 +$59 +67%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 2 Winner May 27 $58 +$45 +77%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 3 Winner May 27 $119 −$37 -31%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 4 Winner May 26 $110 +$76 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 52¢ $11 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 52¢ $3,798 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 11¢ $895 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 1¢ $85 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $8 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $4 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $2 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $1 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $33 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $16 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $5 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $50 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $5 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $30 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $2 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $33 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $0 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $12 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $6 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $23 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $16 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $2 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $100 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,131.41 · official $4,081.34 · 225 history records