Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
47 0x4719…12d3 other 146 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+0%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%15W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$21
politics 31% −$16
sports 12% +$99
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 145 +3.0% -6.8% 10% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 6% -9.4%
10% -15.7% 6% -18.1%
15% -23.8% 4% -26.0%
20% -31.3% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$0 · ×18.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses15 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage120d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $388 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $362 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $237 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $229 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $274 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $272 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 17 $302 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $223 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $269 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $302 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $233 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $235 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $262 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $245 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $266 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $76 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $256 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $265 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $257 $0 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $220 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $225 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $285 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $489 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 6h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 11h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 14h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 39h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 39h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 45h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $50 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $32 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $32 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 9d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 10d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 11d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 15d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 18d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 19d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $204 20d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $204 20d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $283 23d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $283 24d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $257 24d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $257 25d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $237 25d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $237 26d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $229 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 424 history records