Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4717…aa85 crypto 248 markets active 4d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$117 (-34%) realized −$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$41
14 days−$118
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -23.9% -31.1% 8% 8% -26.8%
≤30d 248 -30.5% -37.1% 7% 7% -42.2%
≤90d 248 -30.5% -37.1% 7% 7% -42.2%
all 248 -30.5% -37.1% 7% 7% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.1% 7% -42.2%
10% ← realistic here -43.2% 7% -47.7%
15% -48.7% 7% -52.8%
20% -53.7% 7% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 230
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions (229 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$12 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$8 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$9 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$8 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$12 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 286 history records