Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4716…a7c2 crypto 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$216 (+5%) realized +$262 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%67W / 52L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day78.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 56% -2.3%
≤30d 119 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 56% -2.3%
≤90d 119 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 56% -2.3%
all 119 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 56% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 56% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 56% -11.7%
15% -23.8% 56% -20.2%
20% -31.2% 56% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$28 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized+$262
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses67 / 52
Open positions8
Markets (closed)119 / 127
History coverage2d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day78.2
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Up 57¢ 50¢ $104 $93 −$12 (-11%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 55¢ 50¢ $57 $52 −$4 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Up 51¢ 48¢ $40 $39 −$2 (-5%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 54¢ 50¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET Up 52¢ 37¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 52¢ 33¢ $13 $8 −$5 (-37%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$5 +87%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $132 +$98 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $129 −$129 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$40 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $159 +$99 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$47 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $424 +$302 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$8 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$7 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$19 +75%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$7 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$7 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$15 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$18 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 10AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$8 +92%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$13 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $108 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $42 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $55 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $70 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $33 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $159 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $61 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $726 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $307 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $56 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.07 · official $230.07 (match) · 288 history records