Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

47 0x4716…2ae7 politics 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 597d

TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip

Net edge-64%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 20L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$102per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$2

14 days−$3

30 days−$3

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-63.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-1.8%	-11.1%	0%	0%	-11.1%
≤30d	3	-0.7%	-10.1%	0%	0%	-9.9%
≤90d	3	-0.7%	-10.1%	0%	0%	-9.9%
all	20	-60.1%	-63.9%	0%	0%	-9.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-63.9%	0%	-9.8%
10%	-67.4%	0%	-18.4%
15%	-70.5%	0%	-26.3%
20%	-73.4%	0%	-33.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -60% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -50% → late -70% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$0 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage

Net worth$231

Realized−$5

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 20

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage597d

Avg bet$102

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	$231	$231	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia	Jun 20	$114	−$2	-2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Jun 18	$233	$0	-0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Jun 16	$233	$0	-0%
Will a candidate from another party win North Dakota US Senate Electio	Nov 06	$0	$0	-100%
Will a candidate from another party win Connecticut US Senate Election	Nov 06	$0	$0	-100%
Will a candidate from another party win West Virginia US Senate Electi	Nov 06	$0	$0	-100%
Will a Democrat win Tennessee US Senate Election?	Nov 06	$0	$0	-100%
Will a candidate from another party win New York US Senate Election?	Nov 06	$0	$0	-100%
Will a candidate from another party win New Mexico US Senate Election?	Nov 06	$0	$0	-100%
Will a candidate from another party win Missouri US Senate Election?	Nov 06	$0	$0	-100%
Will a candidate from another party win Vermont US Senate Election?	Nov 06	$0	$0	-100%
Will a candidate from another party win Minnesota US Senate Election?	Nov 06	$0	$0	-100%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals?	Nov 06	$221	$0	-0%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024?	Nov 06	$221	$0	-0%
Will Tetairoa McMillan win the Heisman Trophy?	Nov 06	$221	$0	-0%
Southampton wins the Premier League?	Nov 06	$222	$0	-0%
GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%?	Nov 06	$0	$0	-100%
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025?	Nov 06	$222	$0	-0%
Will a candidate from another party win Maine US Senate Election?	Nov 06	$0	$0	-100%
Will a Republican win Massachusetts US Senate Election?	Nov 06	$0	$0	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$231	1h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$232	1h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$232	4h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia	SELL Yes	56¢	$112	6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia	BUY Yes	57¢	$114	6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL No	99¢	$232	8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$233	9d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	SELL No	100¢	$233	10d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	100¢	$233	11d
Will a candidate from another party win North Dakota US Senate Electio	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	596d
Will a candidate from another party win Connecticut US Senate Election	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	596d
Will a candidate from another party win West Virginia US Senate Electi	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	597d
Will a Democrat win Tennessee US Senate Election?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	597d
Will a candidate from another party win New York US Senate Election?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	597d
Will a candidate from another party win New Mexico US Senate Election?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	597d
Will a candidate from another party win Missouri US Senate Election?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	597d
Will a candidate from another party win Vermont US Senate Election?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	597d
Will a candidate from another party win Minnesota US Senate Election?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	597d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals?	SELL No	100¢	$221	597d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals?	BUY No	100¢	$221	597d
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024?	SELL No	100¢	$221	597d
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024?	BUY No	100¢	$221	597d
Will Tetairoa McMillan win the Heisman Trophy?	SELL No	100¢	$221	597d
Will Tetairoa McMillan win the Heisman Trophy?	BUY No	100¢	$221	597d
Southampton wins the Premier League?	SELL No	100¢	$222	597d
GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	597d
Southampton wins the Premier League?	BUY No	100¢	$222	597d
Will the Titans win Super Bowl 2025?	SELL No	100¢	$222	597d
Will a candidate from another party win Maine US Senate Election?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	597d
Will a Republican win Massachusetts US Senate Election?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	597d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.65 · official $230.65 (match) · 34 history records