Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4712…7b92 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$583 (-15%) realized −$583 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$353
14 days−$586
30 days−$586
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$453
other 2% −$80
world 1% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-65.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -38.4% -44.2% 12% 12% -18.9%
≤30d 13 -62.1% -65.7% 8% 8% -24.1%
≤90d 13 -62.1% -65.7% 8% 8% -24.1%
all 13 -62.1% -65.7% 8% 8% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.7% 8% -24.1%
10% -69.0% 8% -31.3%
15% -72.0% 8% -38.0%
20% -74.7% 8% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$59 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized−$583
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 12
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage11d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $130 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) Jun 24 $1,427 $0 -0%
Spread: Switzerland (-5.5) Jun 24 $328 $0 -0%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $1,072 −$2 -0%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $135 −$133 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $124 +$116 +93%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $132 −$130 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $103 −$102 -99%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $71 −$70 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $132 56m
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 58m
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $8 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $121 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-4.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $130 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-5.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $109 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-5.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $109 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-5.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $109 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-5.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $110 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-5.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $110 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-5.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $110 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.00 · official $130.00 (match) · 60 history records