Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:06:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
47 0x4711…d44c crypto 14 markets active 2d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$151 (+3%) realized +$151 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$169
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$53
other 30% −$2
world 9% −$1
sports 6% +$205
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -23.6% -30.9% 36% 7% -6.9%
≤90d 14 -23.6% -30.9% 36% 7% -6.9%
all 14 -23.6% -30.9% 36% 7% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 7% -6.9%
10% -37.5% 7% -15.8%
15% -43.5% 7% -23.9%
20% -49.1% 7% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$7 · ×5.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage14d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $505 +$1 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $501 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $516 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $486 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $700 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $486 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $534 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $295 +$205 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $29 −$29 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $18 −$17 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $505 45h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $539 45h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $540 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $501 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $538 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $539 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $516 8d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $485 8d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $486 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $485 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $486 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $534 11d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 59¢ $295 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $0 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY Yes $9 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $3 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $3 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $0 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $1 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $5 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $2 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $3 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY No $12 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY Yes $5 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY Yes $0 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY Yes $0 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY Yes $0 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY Yes $0 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY Yes $0 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records