Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

47 0x470f…fd0c other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$78 (+33%) realized +$82 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown63%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-13.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	3	-4.8%	-13.9%	33%	33%	+19.5%
≤90d	3	-4.8%	-13.9%	33%	33%	+19.5%
all	3	-4.8%	-13.9%	33%	33%	+19.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.9%	33%	+19.5%
10%	-22.1%	33%	+8.0%
15%	-29.6%	33%	-2.4%
20%	-36.5%	33%	-12.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$176 vs −$55 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$21

Realized+$82

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage8d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown63%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	23¢	20¢	$25	$21	−$4 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$103	−$100	-97%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$95	+$176	+186%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	23¢	$26	1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	9¢	$103	6d
Spurs vs. Knicks	SELL Knicks	99¢	$270	7d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	34¢	$95	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.20 · official $21.20 (match) · 5 history records