Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:40:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x470f…b541 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate33%13W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$1
politics 16% +$1
other 3% +$1
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% −$4
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +4.4% -5.5% 42% 25% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +4.1% -5.8% 46% 23% -9.5%
all 39 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 10% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 10% -10.1%
10% -19.2% 8% -18.7%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses13 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage274d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $51 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $49 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $50 −$5 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $68 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $21 +$5 +24%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $2 $0 +25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $62 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 19 $69 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $3 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $28 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? Nov 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $1 $0 -5%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 02 $2 $0 -2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $2 $0 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 29 $3 $0 -4%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $7 $0 -4%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $1 $0 +3%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 24 $1 $0 -6%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? Sep 21 $2 $0 +22%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Sep 16 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $55 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $46 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $0 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $1 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $4 21d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $7 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $57 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $33 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $47 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 74¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $48 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $2 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $2 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $3 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $25 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $12 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $27 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $23 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $69 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $1 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $35 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $32 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.00 (match) · 226 history records