Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x470a…e537 sports 50 markets active 6d ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$172 (-19%) realized −$173 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$71
other 24% −$3
tech 14% −$88
economics 1% −$10
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-56.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 20 -83.7% -85.2% 5% 5% -69.3%
≤90d 35 -51.6% -56.2% 23% 23% -28.6%
all 49 -52.4% -56.9% 22% 22% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.9% 22% -28.5%
10% -61.0% 22% -35.4%
15% -64.8% 22% -41.6%
20% -68.2% 22% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$13 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 38
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage272d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $30 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $20 +$46 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5 May 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 109.5 May 11 $20 +$19 +93%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5 May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 10 $30 +$24 +79%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 10 $20 +$21 +101%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5 May 09 $20 −$20 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $20 +$29 +143%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 May 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 03 $12 −$12 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $41 +$28 +70%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) May 01 $51 +$47 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 01 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: Celtics (-5.5) Apr 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 31 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. FC København end in a draw? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur Jan 25 $35 +$20 +58%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jan 25 $52 −$17 -33%
Will Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? Sep 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Valencia vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Sep 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-20? Sep 20 $12 −$12 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will four or more people dissent the September Fed decision? Sep 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Sep 15 $30 +$22 +72%
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 14 $35 +$28 +80%
Will Franz Wagner win the 2025 EuroBasket MVP? Sep 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will BetBoom Team win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 13¢ $10 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No $2 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No $2 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY No $2 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $16 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY Yes $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY Yes $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY Yes $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 46¢ $10 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 46¢ $20 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 18d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5 BUY Over 98¢ $40 30d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 111.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 38d
Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 109.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 38d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 39d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 39d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 39d
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) BUY Cavaliers 55¢ $30 39d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 40¢ $20 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.94 · official $30.94 (match) · 72 history records