Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4708…1493 other 270 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 251L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$34
sports 20% −$19
politics 12% −$11
crypto 7% −$9
economics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$8
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 269 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 251
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)269 / 270
History coverage143d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $296 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $506 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $753 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $245 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $643 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $377 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $269 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $636 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $421 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $368 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $480 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $424 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $187 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $249 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $259 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $155 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $337 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $156 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $293 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $230 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 5h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 6h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 9h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 11h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 15h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 16h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 18h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 20h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 22h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 24h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $55 37h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $56 38h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 40h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $56 43h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 45h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 46h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $57 47h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.70 · official $54.70 (match) · 1507 history records