Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4707…d1ce crypto 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-2%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate85%176W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$25
14 days−$23
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -6.8% -15.7% 81% 76% -15.7%
≤30d 206 -1.9% -11.2% 85% 74% -11.8%
≤90d 206 -1.9% -11.2% 85% 74% -11.8%
all 206 -1.9% -11.2% 85% 74% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 74% -11.8%
10% -19.7% 6% -20.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -28.0%
20% -34.6% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses176 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)206 / 206
History coverage22d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 206 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 407 history records