Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
47 0x4704…9d98 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+15%) realized +$38 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$36
14 days+$40
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$26
other 33% +$25
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+73.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +152.4% +128.4% 56% 56% +14.4%
≤30d 15 +92.0% +73.7% 53% 53% +5.4%
≤90d 15 +92.0% +73.7% 53% 53% +5.4%
all 15 +92.0% +73.7% 53% 53% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +73.7% 53% +5.4%
10% +57.1% 53% -4.7%
15% +41.9% 53% -13.9%
20% +28.0% 40% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late +108% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage22d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $35 $41 +$6 (+18%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$12 +40%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$34 +1116%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $4 +$21 +512%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $25 +$29 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $25 −$25 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 30 $29 +$19 +65%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $35 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $29 14h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $25 27h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 27h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 3d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $25 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 45¢ $2 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $25 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $25 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $10 18d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $10 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $29 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $20 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.01 · official $44.01 (match) · 27 history records