Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4704…515e sports 432 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,072 (-4%) realized −$1,099 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%154W / 272L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$479est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$483now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$479
7 days+$652
14 days−$295
30 days−$1,465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$742
other 10% −$721
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -9.4% -18.0% 37% 37% -1.9%
≤30d 425 -16.9% -24.9% 36% 36% -13.9%
≤90d 426 -17.1% -25.0% 36% 36% -14.0%
all 426 -17.1% -25.0% 36% 36% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 36% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 35% -22.3%
15% -38.8% 33% -29.8%
20% -44.8% 28% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$50 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$483
Realized−$1,099
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses154 / 272
Est. fees paid−$479
Open positions3
Markets (closed)426 / 432
History coverage30d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 426 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 74¢ $56 $80 +$24 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 241 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $99 +$122 +123%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $79 +$77 +97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $430 −$211 -49%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $212 −$81 -38%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $126 −$53 -42%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $110 −$107 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $70 −$68 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $202 −$34 -17%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $30 −$29 -97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $87 +$13 +14%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $67 +$60 +90%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $135 +$67 +49%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $58 −$57 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $71 +$86 +121%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $329 +$440 +134%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $366 +$570 +156%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$6 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $49 −$48 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $298 +$452 +152%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$196 +383%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $179 −$176 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $32 +$21 +64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $45 +$21 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $184 −$181 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $198 −$195 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $99 +$26 +27%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $99 −$98 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $100 +$156 +156%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $66 −$41 -62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 100¢ $221 11m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 44¢ $99 18m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $57 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $156 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $79 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Norway leading at halftime? BUY 46¢ $43 15h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 15h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 54¢ $214 15h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 45¢ $213 15h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 44¢ $216 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 27¢ $73 17h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $73 17h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $126 17h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SELL GenOne 43¢ $126 17h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY GenOne 46¢ $139 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 19h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 34¢ $110 19h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 38¢ $99 21h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 24¢ $70 21h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner SELL 100 Thieves 48¢ $168 21h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $202 22h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 38¢ $107 23h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 8¢ $30 24h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $100 24h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $127 24h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 87¢ $87 25h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 52¢ $67 25h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $202 25h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 66¢ $135 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $482.51 · official $524.51 · 770 history records