Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
47 0x4702…5d04 sports 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,455 (-21%) realized −$4,449 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%37W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$311est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$566
14 days−$1,000
30 days−$2,248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$4,523
other 2% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -34.5% -40.8% 35% 35% -24.3%
≤30d 69 -20.5% -28.1% 36% 36% -27.2%
≤90d 104 -26.5% -33.5% 36% 35% -29.8%
all 104 -26.5% -33.5% 36% 35% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 35% -29.8%
10% -39.9% 34% -36.5%
15% -45.7% 30% -42.6%
20% -51.0% 22% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$175 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized−$4,449
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses37 / 67
Est. fees paid−$311
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage45d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 64¢ 62¢ $266 $260 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $287 −$18 -6%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 16 $147 −$145 -98%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $145 −$143 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $242 +$338 +140%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $156 −$148 -95%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $246 +$152 +62%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $248 −$246 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $79 −$77 -97%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $143 +$183 +128%
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Jun 15 $77 −$76 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $160 +$60 +38%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $103 −$101 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $118 −$117 -99%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $56 −$54 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $78 +$96 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $76 −$72 -94%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $113 −$110 -98%
ITF Nice: Nika Hurkacz vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 10 $184 −$173 -94%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $129 −$126 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $289 +$137 +48%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $218 +$70 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $154 +$64 +41%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 09 $146 −$143 -98%
ITF Martos: Rigele Te vs Joao Domingues Jun 09 $232 −$228 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Justina Gonzalez Daniele vs Julia Konishi Camargo Silva Jun 09 $171 +$207 +121%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $60 +$112 +188%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $124 −$65 -52%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $164 −$160 -98%
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 06 $23 −$22 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $248 −$243 -98%
ITF Caltanissetta: Luca Potenza vs Gabriele Piraino Jun 06 $146 +$124 +85%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) Jun 06 $57 +$89 +156%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $108 −$105 -98%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $207 −$204 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $155 −$146 -94%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $144 −$142 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $129 −$121 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $547 −$539 -98%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) Jun 01 $293 +$146 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $351 −$345 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $200 +$944 +473%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $185 +$300 +162%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $65 +$121 +185%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $69 −$67 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima May 28 $218 −$214 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry May 28 $139 +$80 +58%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $76 +$63 +82%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Hugo Gaston May 28 $79 −$77 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys May 27 $86 −$85 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $269 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $269 1h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 41¢ $147 9h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 42¢ $145 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $287 11h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $242 15h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 55¢ $156 17h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 61¢ $246 22h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 74¢ $248 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $79 35h
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) BUY Perricard 39¢ $77 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 43¢ $143 41h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $221 42h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $160 44h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY Karmine Corp Blue 54¢ $103 3d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 68¢ $118 3d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 NORD 12¢ $56 3d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 44¢ $78 3d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 38¢ $76 4d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 60¢ $61 5d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA BUY paiN Gaming 22¢ $113 6d
ITF Nice: Nika Hurkacz vs Denislava Glushkova BUY Nika Hurkacz 24¢ $124 6d
ITF Nice: Nika Hurkacz vs Denislava Glushkova BUY Nika Hurkacz 29¢ $60 6d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G BUY Karmine Corp Blue 18¢ $129 6d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 100¢ $426 6d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 67¢ $289 6d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann SELL Mattia Bellucci 100¢ $289 6d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Mattia Bellucci 75¢ $218 6d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 100¢ $218 6d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 70¢ $154 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $259.64 · official $259.64 (match) · 156 history records