Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

47
0x4701…c70d
crypto · 25 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$9
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)18 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day92.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 7 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage RUSTEC 59¢ 59¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 69¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 82¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 15¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Down 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% −$6
sports 12% $0
weather 7% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes $2 4m
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 100¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY RUSTEC 59¢ $1 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 2h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 81¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -21.8% -29.3% 28% 28% -17.4%
≤30d 18 -21.8% -29.3% 28% 28% -17.4%
≤90d 18 -21.8% -29.3% 28% 28% -17.4%
all 18 -21.8% -29.3% 28% 28% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover92.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 28% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 11% -25.3%
15% -42.2% 0% -32.5%
20% -47.9% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.79 · official $8.79 (match) · 94 history records